American astronomers have calculated different scenarios of the emergence of alien civilizations and came to the conclusion that they must be extremely rare, but it is able to establish contact with a person from anywhere in the Galaxy, said in an article published in the electronic library arXiv.org
“In may 1961, President Kennedy announced that the United States will send humans to the moon and return them back in the next 10 years. The dream came true in July 1969, filling in one of the most important pages in the history of space exploration. In this regard, it is difficult to believe that nothing like this had happened in other parts of the Universe. And so we are very much thinking about, as I said, Enrico Fermi where are all these aliens?” write Jorge Soriano (Jorge Soriano) and his colleagues from the City University of new York (USA).
More than half a century ago, the American astronomer Frank Drake developed a formula for calculating the number of civilizations in the galaxy with whom contact is possible, trying to estimate the chances of detection of extraterrestrial intelligence and life.
Physicist Enrico Fermi in response to a high estimate of the chances of interplanetary contact the Drake equation was formulated the thesis, which is now known as the Fermi paradox: if extraterrestrial civilizations so much, then why the mankind does not observe any traces of them? This paradox, scientists have tried to solve in many ways, the most popular of which is the hypothesis of a “unique Earth”.
She suggests that for the emergence of intelligent beings unique requirements, in fact, a full copy of our planet. Other astronomers believe that we are unable to communicate with the aliens, because galactic civilization or disappear too quickly, so we could notice them, or because they actively conceal their existence from humanity.
Soriano and his colleagues decided to find out why we still have not met the brothers on reason, and calculated different variants of their evolution and lifetime. In these calculations, the scientists relied on two simple things. First, not all habitable planets can be a haven for intelligent life, and secondly, the average time of their existence can vary greatly depending on the frequency of occurrence of gamma-ray flares, supernovae explosions and other galactic cataclysms, capable to destroy life on a single planet.
Guided by these ideas, scientists have tried to reconcile the Fermi paradox and the Drake equation, calculating scenarios of the existence of aliens, which would be consistent with one idea. For this, the researchers added to the Drake equation, two new parameter – the share of “rational” civilization, with the means of interstellar communication, and the time of their existence.
The calculations show that reasonable, but invisible to us civilization of aliens really could or might exist in our Galaxy, but their share among the total number of intelligent aliens would be extremely small – about 0.5%. This significantly complicates their quest, and explains why we do not observe them today.
The lifetime of civilizations can be quite large – about 300 thousand years. Therefore, in principle, they could establish contact with humanity from anywhere in the galaxy, if I knew about its existence. The search for traces of them, as I think Soriano and his colleagues will only be possible in the future, when the heirs of modern space telescopes, NASA will open a greater number of “doubles” of the Earth, and the full analogues of our planet.