A very dangerous setup is shaping up for this region – especially coastal areas of S Italy (Calabria, Campania and whole Puglia region), Albania and Montenegro – as a pronounced frontal system pushes through later today.
Moderately unstable (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) but strongly sheared (30-35 m/s) and helical environment (SREH in excess of 500 m2/s2) appears conductive for development of numerous supercells, including tornadic in nature! Very high values of LL shear (15-25 m/s) and helicity are supportive of strong tornadoes (e.g. big Rome tornado yesterday or Taranto wedge tornado a few years ago). In addition to severe storms, excessive rainfall (100-200mm) and high flash floods risk is expected locally, especially due to complex terrain locally.
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An inpressive amount of lightning this weekend, almost 90.000 were detected across north-central Mediterranean during an active frontal system, which produced deadly tornado in Rome and damaging flooding in Slovenia and parts on central Italy.
Slovenia’s iconic Savica waterfall turned into a raging torrent yesterday, after over 200 mm of rainfall in 24h! Video: Amadej Bernard
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